TRADE deals and a weaker Australian dollar have been credited with the positive forecasts projected for Australia's horticulture industries.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)'s Outlook 2016 agricultural commodities report released today shows strong potential for further sector growth on the back solid 2014-2015 figures.
There are few forecasts within the report that fruit, vegetable and nut producers would sigh at, with the report painting a glowing future for the horticulture sector.
The gross value of horticultural production is expected to increase from $9.3 billion in 2014–15 to $10.2 billion in 2020–21.
Exports of horticultural products are expected to expand from $2.1 billion in 2014–15 to $2.2 billion in 2020–21.
While Australia may be set to send more overseas, it also seems poised to import more.
In recent years about 30 per cent of horticultural imports by value have been fresh produce, with the remaining 70pc processed.
However, around 80pc of Australia’s horticultural exports are fresh produce.
Since 2003–04 the total value of imports of horticultural products has exceeded the value of exports, and the gap has widened over time.
In 2014–15 total fruit, nut and vegetable imports were valued at $2.7 billion, $834 million more than the value of exports.
It's a different story for the fresh sector specifically though, with the value of fresh horticultural exports continuing to exceed the value of fresh imports.
Fresh horticultural exports were valued at $1.1 billion, twice the value of fresh imports.
ABARES reports both exports and imports of fresh horticultural produce are expected to grow in the medium term, with the value of exports exceeding the value of imports.
Nudging this export growth along was a weakened Australian dollar in the three years to 2015-2016.
The assumed low value of the Australian dollar is expected to support a projected value rise in exports.
The gross value of horticultural production is expected to increase from $9.3 billion in 2014–15 to $10.2 billion in 2020–21.
- ABARES Outlook 2016