A DISCUSSION paper on Australia's plant biosecurity has delivered some unsettling examples of what might be should resources ever decline.
The Australian Farm Institute's paper, "A sustainable and nationally coordinated plant biosecurity R,D&E system for Australia", paints some disturbing pictures if certain diseases and pests every took hold in Australia.
It was released this week to stimulate discussion about the future of the Plant Biosecurity Cooperative Research Centre (Plant Biosecurity CRC) which comes to the end of its timeframe in 2018.
In highlighting the vigilance required to maintain Australia's minimal pests and disease status, the paper outlines some of the nasties lurking outside the country and the potential effects on local industries.
Referencing numerous studies done by individuals and institutions, the list makes for worrying reading across numerous sectors.
It cites the 2012 Benefit–cost analysis of the National Fruit Fly Strategy Action Plan which estimated the potential impact on horticultural farm output of Queensland fruit fly and Mediterranean fruit fly.
"It found annual benefits of Australia’s fruit fly control program of between $29 million and $37 million depending on the severity of the outbreak scenario that could occur," the discussion paper said.
"Around half of the benefits come directly from reduced production losses and improved market access."
For grain growers, information on the impacts of wheat diseases is displayed.
The document, The Current and Potential Costs from Diseases of Wheat in Australia, by the Grains Research and Development Corporation, found the lost production due to endemic wheat diseases was valued at $913 million of which almost 50 per cent was due to three major diseases; yellow spot, stripe rust and septoria.
"In the absence of existing control measures it was estimated that the five most damaging wheat diseases (stripe rust, yellow spot, CCN, stem rust, crown rot) would reduce the value of production by $3.154 million per annum, equivalent to about 2/3 of total wheat production and about 90pc of wheat exports," the discussion paper said.
Karnal bunt was also listed as a wheat crop inhibitor via a 2002 study that modelled the risk of an outbreak of the fungal infection of wheat seeds on the wheat industry in Western Australia.
"The disease impacts quality of the wheat more than yield, but would likely also result in closure of many markets that do not accept grain from countries where the disease is endemic," the paper said.
"The authors estimated that the disease would have an economic effect on between 8pc and 24pc of the 8-10 million tonnes of wheat produced in WA which currently has a value of around $2.5 billion per annum.
"WA’s wheat production represents about 40-50pc of Australia’s wheat production and about 50-60pc of wheat exports."
Grape growers and wine producers are also given some nightmare-inducing bedtime reading.
Schofield Robinson and EconSearch Pty Ltd (2002) investigated the potential impact of incursions of the insect pest, Phylloxera (Daktulsphaira vitifoliae) on the South Australian wine industry, regional economies and the state economy.
"The impact of Phylloxera on grape production, before considering the impact of remedial action, was estimated to vary from 8pc to almost 99pc in different regions with the biggest impact felt in some of the most economically important growing regions including Coonawarra, 99pc, Padthway, 42pc; McLaren Vale 40pc and Barossa Valley 36pc," the discussion paper said.
"The study estimated that vineyard profitability would be reduced by between 20pc and 54pc across the various winegrowing regions, with the biggest impacts in the Riverland (the largest producing region), 54pc; and the major, premium winegrowing regions such as McLaren Vale, 41pc; Barossa Valley, 39pc and Coonawarra, 35pc.
"The aggregate loss of value added across the South Australian economy was estimated at $170 million dollars and a loss of 560 jobs."
"The authors estimated that the disease would have an economic effect on between 8pc and 24pc of the 8-10 million tonnes of wheat produced in WA which currently has a value of around $2.5 billion per annum."
- Discussion Paper
The final example given within the discussion paper is on the banana industry.
It describes bananas as a very high risk industry, valued at $438 million in 2013/14 of which about 95pc are Cavendish varieties.
"The most economically damaging exotic diseases of bananas are Black Sigatoka and Panama disease," the paper said.
"Black Sigatoka is controllable but would significantly diminish production if it became widespread and would result in loss of most export markets.
"Panama disease is specific to Cavendish bananas and once established is virtually impossible to contain or treat.
"If it were to become widely established in the North Queensland production region it could eliminate 80-90pc of Australian banana production."
The paper said the examples show the potential for serious impact on some of Australia’s most significant plant-based industries.
It also called for a more serious look at the funding given to plant-based biosecurity in comparison to that of animal industries.
"Because of the range of pest and disease organisms, differing vectors for their incursion and spread, and the variety of methods of control, the research task for plant pests and diseases is more complicated and involves a wider array of disciplines than for the most prominent animal disease risks," the paper said.
"The principle animal biosecurity risks such as foot and mouth disease, brucellosis and tuberculosis that affect multiple species would cause widespread disruption to animal production and trade.
"These prominent disease risks have readily attracted the most attention from governments and research funding agencies.
"As recognised as long ago as the Nairn Review in 1996 there is a need to redress the imbalance between the research efforts on biosecurity risks to plant industries compared to animal industries."