Dr Watkins said the bureau was predicting a “warm spring, with rainfall not looking all that extreme.
“There is the possibility of above average rainfall in areas near south-east Queensland and far east Gippsland,” Dr Watkins said.
“Far-east Gippsland is looking like getting reasonable odds of having above normal rainfall; indeed, it’s been dry there.
There was not a strong push to exceptionally wet, or dry, conditions, for the rest of the state.
“While Australia’s main climate drivers – the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole – are both neutral, other climate drivers are likely to influence spring,” Dr Watkins said.
“Warm waters in the central Indian Ocean may result in higher pressures, south of Australia, resulting in more easterly winds, keeping the west drier than average.”
During winter there had not been an El Nino or Indian Ocean dipole.
“We have seen very warm conditions in parts of the Indian Ocean and southern parts of the Pacific Ocean, which have generally been pushing our weather systems further south.
“When that happens, the cold fronts get blocked off and we don’t get the winter rainfall we normally expect.”
Winter saw dry conditions, cool nights and warm days.
“It’s likely it will be the driest winter since the El Nino of 2002-2003 – that was the driest winter on record,” Dr Watkins said.
“It’s looking like it will probably be our warmest winter on record, breaking the old 2009 mark.
“We had our driest June on record, in Victoria, but August rainfall has been a lot better.
“We are already at average, or above average values, for most places in Victoria.
The Bureau’s senior forecaster Scott Williams said a brief taste of spring, this week, would be replaced by another blast of winter across southeastern Australia.
“After a chilly morning, with inland frosts, the southeast of the country can expect a settled first day of spring, with plenty of sunshine and light winds,” Mr Williams said.
“The first few days of spring will bring changeable weather across the south as a cold front moves across South Australia on Saturday, then Victoria, Tasmania and southern New South Wales, on Sunday.”
The story Hold on, rain’s coming to the east, says BoM forecaster first appeared on Stock & Land.