AS cluey as Australian farmers are, there's a slim chance any are down the shed, tinkering away on a time machine.
Anyone who steps forward declaring they've come back from the future will be met with careful glances and suspicion that they've been sipping the hand sanitiser again.
At this point, a time machine would be handy tool for producers.
Not so much for future world events or to see how many seasons of Farmer Wants A Wife actually goes for, but to pinpoint farm input cost rises.
A combination of COVID impacts and the hostilities in Ukraine are having global flow-on effects to farms down under.
Two of the biggest that come to mind are fuel and fertiliser.
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According to the the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the terminal gate diesel prices hit their highest price on record by a considerable margin as of March 11.
Diesel and petrol are near-essential elements on any farm, so any rise is going to squeeze growers hard.
Russia is protecting its own domestic fertiliser supply and therefore exports of ammonium nitrate onto the world market will slow, if not cease.
A recent Ausveg Advocacy Update highlighted that vegetable and potato prices have remained stable over the past two years despite record rises in farm input costs.
It showed retail prices for produce have remained at pre-pandemic levels while growers face increases of more than 40 per cent in fertiliser, chemical and fuel costs, and increases by more than 20pc in wages and even airfares.
The warnings over inputs were well declared at the recent Citrus Technical Forum 2022 on the Sunshine Coast where several speakers gave overviews of the current situation and what might be to come.
Not all cropping programs are flexible enough to wait for a price drop or to even absorb a price rise.
Rabobank senior analyst Mick Harvey said the war in the Ukraine will push fertiliser prices up in the short term.
EE Muir & Sons' Matt Strmiska said Australia was such a small player on the global agricultural market that any overseas decisions had ripple effects, no matter how efficient we are.
Campbells Fertilisers national sales and marketing manager Scott Matthews gave a similar outlook saying most of the key fertiliser ingredients are set to track at high prices for the year.
He encouraged growers to plan even further ahead suggesting that the best forecasting tool would be a crystal ball.
But how much further forward can growers plan?
Not all cropping programs are flexible enough to wait for a price drop or to even absorb a price rise.
This is where the time machine would come in handy. Sadly though, that thinking should be left to the realms of science fiction.
It's not a good way to end a column but the blunt and grim advice from those in the know appears to be: brace for pain.
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Ashley Walmsley
Ashley Walmsley is the editor of ACM's only national, fresh produce magazine, Good Fruit & Vegetables, while also covering horticulture stories for the agricultural papers and websites. He also writes the weekly, The Ringer, column in the Qld Country Life.
Ashley Walmsley is the editor of ACM's only national, fresh produce magazine, Good Fruit & Vegetables, while also covering horticulture stories for the agricultural papers and websites. He also writes the weekly, The Ringer, column in the Qld Country Life.
